COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIATED PREDICTION-APPROACH AND INTERVAL-ANALYSIS FOR THE PREDICTION OF WEATHER VARIABLES UNDER UNCERTAINTY

In this paper, a differentiated prediction model (DPM) was combined wi th an interval analysis approach for the prediction of weather variabl es under uncertainty. The DPM was used for general trend prediction, a nd interval analysis was used for reflecting seasonal variations and r esidual terms. A case study of prediction for monthly average temperat ure and precipitation in Wuhan, China, was provided based on 22 years of observation data. The results indicated that uncertainties existing in weather-related processes could be effectively reflected through t his hybrid approach. The predicted intervals for temperature and preci pitation appear to contain most of the relevant observed values. (C) 1 997 Academic Press Limited