APPLICATION OF A STOCHASTIC DISTRIBUTED DELAY SIMULATION-MODEL TO THEEPIDEMIOLOGY OF CLINICAL RESPIRATORY-DISEASE IN A DAIRY-CATTLE POPULATION

A stochastic distributed delay simulation model was applied in studyin g the epidemiology of clinical respiratory disease in a dairy cattle p opulation. The predictive ability of the model was tested against data from the National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS) in Michigan . Using the annual incidence density (aID) as outcome, model predicted aIDs were compared with those observed from the actual data. The mode l results did not significantly differ from the observed 66% of the ti me. Observations of model behavior acid applications of this modeling approach are discussed.