PRIOR HOSPITALIZATION AND AGE AS PREDICTORS OF MENTAL-HEALTH RESOURCEUTILIZATION IN ISRAEL

A two-part demand model based on data from a psychiatric case registry was estimated in order to search for predictors of hospital-based psy chiatric care utilization. Using only age as an independent variable, explanation of future resource utilization is considerably weaker than when number of cumulative days of psychiatric hospital-based service use during the previous five years is also included. Only a small marg inal gain is achieved by also adding diagnoses. Prospective remunerati on by capitating sick funds according to age and past hospital-based s ervice utilization records is recommended to avoid the twin pitfalls o f cream-skimming and a distorted allocation of resources for psychiatr ic services. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd