A probabilistic fracture mechanics model is employed to estimate the f
ailure probability of axially cracked steam generator tubes. The model
estimates the failure probability from the random changes of the infl
uencing parameters such as tube and crack geometry, material propertie
s and non-destructive examination results, reliability and sizing accu
racy and stable crack propagation. The performance of the model is ill
ustrated by a numerical example. A steam generator tubing severely aff
ected by the stress corrosion cracking is studied during most unfavour
able accidental conditions. Two different plugging approaches are anal
yzed and the quality is compared, showing: the superior performance of
crack length oriented approach over tube wall thickness reduction bot
h in terms of SC failure probability and extent of plugging. Thus, apa
rt from setting the acceptable SG failure probability, all elements fo
r the risk-based SG lifetime optimisation are provided on the example
of stress corrosion cracking in the tube expansion transition zone.