DYNAMIC MODELING OF VEHICLE POPULATIONS - AN ENGINEERING APPROACH FOREMISSIONS CALCULATIONS

A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions f rom motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately fo r passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estima tes of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total tra ffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technolog y substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more re fined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed info rmation is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can i mplement it reasonably well.