Eh. Hogg et Pa. Hurdle, THE ASPEN PARKLAND IN WESTERN CANADA - A DRY-CLIMATE ANALOG FOR THE FUTURE BOREAL FOREST, Water, air and soil pollution, 82(1-2), 1995, pp. 391-400
Predicted future changes in regional climate under a doubling of atmos
pheric CO2 concentrations were applied to the 1951-80 normals of 254 c
limate stations to examine future impacts on the boreal forest of west
ern Canada. Previous analyses have indicated that in this region, the
southern boreal forest is presently restricted to areas where annual p
recipitation (P) exceeds potential evapotranspiration (PET). The prese
nt analysis suggests that a predicted 11% increase in P would be insuf
ficient to offset the increases in PET resulting from a predicted warm
ing of 4-5 degrees C. As a result, half of the western Canadian boreal
forest could be exposed to a drier climate similar to the present asp
en parkland zone (P < PET), where conifers are generally absent and as
pen is restricted to patches of stunted trees interspersed with grassl
and. Future changes could result in permanent losses of forest cover f
ollowing disturbance and an increase in the proportion of exposed edge
habitat in remaining stands, where environmental conditions might ind
uce additional stresses on tree growth. Thus if the predicted warming
and drying occurs, productivity of aspen and other commercial species
in the southern boreal forest would be greatly reduced.