PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF CONCRETE CONTAINMENT CAPACITY FOR BEYOND DESIGN BASIS INTERNAL-PRESSURES

For beyond design basis internal pressure loading, experimental studie s have demonstrated that the most probable failure mode governing the ultimate functional capacity of concrete containments is leak rather t han break. Based on leak rates measured in experiments, a prediction f ormula for leak rate as functions of containment liner size and intern al pressure has been postulated. The determination of liner tear is ca st in a probabilistic framework. In calculating leakage, particular at tention is paid to the evaluation of leakage versus rupture and the lo ading rates that may be required to leapfrog over a leakage mode.