PREDICTIONS OF RODENT CARCINOGENICITY TESTING RESULTS - INTERPRETATION IN LIGHT OF THE LAVE-OMENN VALUE-OF-INFORMATION MODEL

The recent National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/Nationa l Toxicology Program Carcinogen Prediction Challenge elicited a valuab le array of predictions of the carcinogenicity of chemicals tested in the lifetime rodent bioassay. The data warrant additional analyses of the similarities and differences of the predictive methods. We provide here analyses of the sensitivity, specificity, and false-positive/fal se-negative tendencies of the different sets of predictions. Our value -of-information model provides guidance to testing agencies and regula tory agencies in determining the social value of additional informatio n and setting up the framework for assessing the social consequences o f different test strategies and nontest predictive methods. These cons iderations deserve attention in the second round of the Carcinogen Pre diction Challenge. (C) 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.