NEGATING THE DEMOCRATIC-PARTY ADVANTAGE IN OPEN SEAT ELECTIONS - A RESEARCH UPDATE

Objective. In an earlier paper in this journal the author argued that Republican prospects for electoral success in the House of Representat ives rested on fielding politically experienced candidates, negating D emocratic party advantages in spending, and taking advantage of the op portunities created in the South due to affirmative action redistricti ng. Methods. This study examines the role of open seats in forging the Republican majority in 1994. The 1994 open seat congressional electio ns are examined at the district level to determine how Republican open seat performance improved, compared to the previous decade, and how G OP improvement related to Republican gains. Results. GOP success in op en seats occurred under conditions similar to those indicated by previ ous research, with one significant exception: the South. This analysis indicates that the Democratic party advantage was negated by a strong backlash vote against professional Democratic politicians in that reg ion, and by changes in district demographics during the previous redis tricting. Conclusions. The new Republican majority rested in part on t he change in GOP fortunes in open seats, especially in the South. Redi stricting, changing white voter allegiances, and a change in the relat ionship between candidate experience and voter expectations were also related to GOP success.