THE AIDS EPIDEMIC IN INDIA - A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CURRENT HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS (HIV) INCIDENCE RATES

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates in India were estim ated using a new method that accounts for follow-up bias. Follow-up bi as arises in epidemiologic cohort studies when the incidence rate amon g individuals who do and do not return for follow-up are different, Th e new method combines data on the prevalence of p24 antigenemia among all those initially screened together with the longitudinal follow-up data on the subset of patients who returned for follow-up, Using these methods, the current HIV incidence rate among patients attending sexu ally transmitted disease clinics in Pune, India, was 18.6% per year, I t was found that follow-up bias can cause significant underestimation in HIV incidence rates, perhaps by as much as 60%. These incidence est imates, together with other HIV seroprevalence studies, suggest the HI V epidemic in India is growing rapidly.