UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE DYNAMICS OF OFFENDER POPULATIONS

This paper models the increase in the participation rate of criminal b ehavior as either the initiation rate or the career length of criminal s changes in response to increases in unemployment. Even with large in stantaneous increases in unemployment, the models show a very slow inc rease in the criminal participation rate, giving a possible explanatio n of the failure of many studies to demonstrate a link between unemplo yment and crime levels.