REARREST PROBABILITIES FOR THE 1984-1993 APPREHENDED WESTERN-AUSTRALIAN POPULATION - A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

A large population of all persons arrested by police in Western Austra lia for the first time between April 1, 1984, and June 30, 1993 (n = 1 46,038), were followed up to determine if they have ever been rearrest ed. Probabilities of rearrest were estimated at 0.52 for male non-Abor igines, 0.36 for female non-Aborigines, 0.88 for male Aborigines, and 0.85 for female Aborigines. Significant variations in the probability of rearrest and/or time to rearrest for different age groups, number o f times arrested, occupational status, offense group, place of birth, and bail status were observed. Covariate analysis (Mailer, 1993) of no n-Aboriginals (n = 51,302) found with the offense of ''driving under t he influence'' (DUI) was also undertaken to test the significance of d ifferences in probabilities of rearrest for subgroups. Probabilities o f rearrest were 0.47 for any offense and 0.31 for a repeat DUI for mal es and 0.34 for any offense and 0.20 for a repeat DUI for females. The results are discussed in the light of estimates of reimprisonment and the utility of offender risk assessment.