SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING FOR RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT

A System Dynamics model to simulate the substitution of installed hous ehold appliances by more efficient ones is presented. The model allows the construction of scenarios and also the analyses of several other issues such as: alternatives for technology penetration, electricity c onsumption growth, gas consumption growth and effects of pricing polic ies on various energy demands. The proposed methodology has been appli ed to assist the decision process in relation to gas penetration polic ies. The model also supports policy making on energy efficiency and it allows the calculation of total energy savings under different scenar ios. Furthermore, government underpricing policies on tariffs and appl iance acquisition (longer loan terms, lower interest rates and grace p eriods) may also be analysed.