The monitoring of fetal weight is an important aspect of antenatal car
e. To construct an individually adjustable standard, we developed a mo
del to link the predicted birth weight to a fetal weight curve which o
utlines how this weight is to be reached in an uncomplicated pregnancy
. A formula was derived which describes the median fetal weight at eac
h gestation as a proportion of the optimal term weight, and also defin
es the 90th and 10th centile curves as normal limits. We analyzed a bi
rth weight database of 38 114 singleton, routine ultrasound-dated preg
nancies resulting in term deliveries. By stepwise multiple regression
analysis, we derived coefficients for the factors that act as variable
s on term birth weight in our population. Apart from gestational age a
nd sex, the maternal height, weight at first visit, ethnic group, pari
ty and smoking all have significant and independent effects on birth w
eight. The variation due to ethnic group appears to be physiological i
n this population. Smoking is associated with a reduction in birth wei
ght, which is independent of maternal physique and related to the numb
er of cigarettes per day as reported at the first visit.We have develo
ped a software program which calculates, on the basis of pregnancy var
iables entered at the first visit, an adjusted normal range for fetal
size. This can be printed out as a chart and used for antenatal survei
llance of growth.