THE GREAT-SALT-LAKE - A BAROMETER OF LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATIC VARIABILITY

Low-frequency (interannual or longer period) climatic variability is o f interest because of its significance for the understanding and predi ction of protracted climatic anomalies. Closed basin lakes are sensiti ve to long-term climatic fluctuations and integrate out high-frequency variability. It is thus natural to examine the records of such lakes to better understand long-term climate dynamics. Here we use singular spectral analysis and multitaper spectral analysis to analyze the time series of Great Salt Lake (GSL) monthly volume change from 1848 to 19 92 and monthly precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for nearby s tations with 74 or more years of data. This analysis reveals high frac tional variance in 15-18, 10-12, 3-7 and 2-year frequency bands, which seems to be consistent across time series. The putative decadal and i nterdecadal signals appear to be related to large-scale climate signal s. The interannual signals are consistent with El Nino Southern Oscill ation and quasi-biennial variability. Prospects for improved predictio n of the GSL volume and of protracted wet/dry periods in the western U nited States are discussed.