MODELING THE MARKET UPTAKE OF NEW DRUGS FOLLOWING LISTING FOR SUBSIDYIN AUSTRALIA - A REPORT FROM THE DRUG-UTILIZATION-SUBCOMMITTEE OF THETRALIAN-PHARMACEUTICAL-BENEFITS-ADVISORY-COMMITTEE
Dj. Birkett et P. Mcmanus, MODELING THE MARKET UPTAKE OF NEW DRUGS FOLLOWING LISTING FOR SUBSIDYIN AUSTRALIA - A REPORT FROM THE DRUG-UTILIZATION-SUBCOMMITTEE OF THETRALIAN-PHARMACEUTICAL-BENEFITS-ADVISORY-COMMITTEE, British journal of clinical pharmacology, 40(4), 1995, pp. 407-410
The market uptake of five drugs following subsidy listing in Australia
during the period 1990 to 1992 has been modelled using the sigmoid E(
max) model for drug-receptor binding. Utilisation trends for simvastat
in, omeprazole, budesonide, fluoxetine and moclobemide in defined dail
y dose (DDD) per 1000 population per day were smoothed by expressing a
s rolling annual averages. The results indicate good fits of the model
to the data except for omeprazole, with good estimates of uptake rate
and eventual maximum utilisation. Substantial differences between the
drugs occurred in uptake rate which may be related to public educatio
n campaigns on asthma and coronary heart disease occurring during the
release period. The very slow uptake of omeprazole relative to other d
rugs is likely to be due to restrictions on subsidised use. Modelling
the market uptake rate and eventual utilisation of new drugs is useful
as an aid to regulatory, quality use of medicines and financial decis
ions and allows comparisons between drugs to investigate factors impor
tant in market uptake.