EFFECT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON REGIONAL PRECIPITATION IN LAKE BALATON WATERSHED

A methodology is developed and applied to the area of Lake Balaton and its drainage basin, a region of Western Hungary, to estimate the spac e-time distribution of daily precipitation under climate change. Lake Balaton is the largest lake in Central and Western Europe; it has a ce ntral location in the country and its drainage basin covers about the 20% of Hungary (together with the Sio Canal). The methodology is based on an analysis of the semi-Markovian properties of atmospheric macroc irculation pattern types (MCP), and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 700 hPa) MCP types and daily precipitation events. Historical d ata and General Circulation Model (GCM) output of daily MCP correspond ing to 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 scenarios are considered in this study. Tim e series of both local and areal precipitation corresponding for both scenarios are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. For the temperate continental climate of Western Hungary a slightly v ariable spatial response to climate change is obtained. Under 2 x CO2 conditions most of the local and the areal average precipitation sugge sts, a somewhat dryer precipitation regime in Western Hungary. The sen sitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.