SPATIAL ECONOMIC-IMPACTS OF NEW TOWN DEVELOPMENT IN HONG-KONG - A GIS-BASED SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS

This paper models the impacts of public decision making through a new analytic framework based on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and an extended shift-share analysis. The research is se t within the context of Erickson's new model on the suburban economy, allowing study of the spatial economic impacts of new town development in Hong Kong for the period 1966-86. Development patterns for the per iod 1986-2006 are analyzed using the same approach with three differen t development scenarios. It was found that Hong Kong's public housing- led new town development strategy has stimulated occurrence of the fir st spillover/specialization stage in the Erickson model, although the second dispersal/diversification stage has yet to be achieved. In the absence of a concomitant policy to disperse employment, new town devel opment in Hong Kong has resulted in a mismatch between place of reside nce and place of work, leading to a polarization between white-collar jobs concentrated in the older urban areas and blue-collar jobs in the newer towns. Results indicate that the second stage of Erickson's mod el may be achieved if Hong Kong maintains its current growth momentum. However, the current concentrated development strategy of the Hong Ko ng government may jeopardize the development of self-contained/self-ba lanced new towns, possibly leading to further overcrowding in central urban areas. Such a concentrated strategy may also deter the further i ntegration of Hong Kong with the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in Chi na.