THE EMERGING PARTY SYSTEM IN THE NEW SOUTH-AFRICA

This report presents evidence from a recent national post-election stu dy concerning South Africa's prospects for developing into either a tr uly competitive multi-party system or the one-party-dominant system ch aracteristic of so many other emerging democracies. Focusing on long-t erm party identification, the evidence indicates that the African Nati onal Congress (ANC) not only commands an overwhelming, but also intens e, share of partisan loyalty. The potential sources of fluidity and el ectoral uncertainty - independent voters and those with weak party loy alties - are not large enough to threaten the ANC's re-election prospe cts. Surprisingly, the source of the ANC's (and the National Party's) support base is not an explicitly racial or ethnic one. Nevertheless, the prospects for a one-party-dominant system are high.