MINOR PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS - ELECTORAL BASES AND FUTURE-PROSPECTS

Speculation about the emergence of conditions for a potential realignm ent of the political system away from the established parties has led to a growing interest in the current status and prospects of minor pol itical parties and independent candidates. In this paper we explore th e social and attitudinal bases of support for minor parties and indepe ndents in recent federal elections, focusing in particular on the Aust ralian Democrats and the Greens. In line with previous research, we fi nd that the social profiles of these political groups are not especial ly distinctive, although higher education and religious secularism eme rge as significant predictors of the vote for both Democrats and Green s. The strongest predictors, however, are partisanship and attitudes t owards political leaders and, not unexpectedly, pro-environmentalist a ttitudes for the Greens. In the light of our analysis we discuss the f uture prospects of minor parties.