ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM GENETIC-IMPROVEMENT FOR GERBERA USING THE BEST LINEAR UNBIASED PREDICTION (BLUP) PROCEDURE

Long-term genetic improvement is measured by the selection response pr edicted from estimates of narrow-sense heritability, Accurate estimate s of selection response require partitioning the change of population mean into genetic and environmental components. A selection experiment for cut-flower yield was conducted for 16 generations in the Davis po pulation of gerbera (Gerbera hybrida, Compositae). Breeding values wer e estimated for individual plants in the population using the best lin ear unbiased prediction (BLUP) procedure. Genetic change in each gener ation was calculated from the breeding values of individual plants. Th e results of this study indicate that long-term selection was successf ul and necessary for the genetic improvement in cut-flower yield. Gene tic improvement in mean breeding value over 16 generations was 33 flow ers. Mean breeding values increased monotonically with an S-shape patt ern while environmental effects fluctuated from generation to generati on. Results predict that cut-flower yield in the Davis population of g erbera will continue to respond to selection.