The cost of expanding mental health and substance abuse treatment cove
rage is a major impediment to reforming insurance coverage for these t
ypes of conditions. The recent experience with national health care re
form offers a case study in cost estimation for mental health and subs
tance abuse coverage. The impact of managed care and the cost of expan
ding coverage to currently uninsured persons introduced uncertainty in
to predictions. This paper critically reviews that experience and draw
s lessons for estimating future costs of policy initiatives.