THE ROLE OF PCR IN THE DIAGNOSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF CMV IN SOLID-ORGANRECIPIENTS - WHAT IS THE PREDICTIVE VALUE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE AND SHOULD PCR BE USED TO GUIDE ANTIVIRAL THERAPY

Cytomegalovirus remains a significant source of morbidity and mortalit y in immunocompromised hosts. The increased sensitivity of molecular d iagnostic techniques (PCR, antigenemia) has resulted in our ability to detect viral replication earlier in the posttransplant period, before the onset of symptoms. With the advent of effective antiviral therapy , ''preemptive therapy,'' guided by sensitive, early and specific pred ictors of CMV disease, has become a realistic objective. Although mult iple studies have analyzed the sensitivity and specificity of these te sts, their predictive value for the development of disease has not bee n defined, The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive va lue of a positive CMV PCR in the setting of solid abdominal organ tran splantation. A total of 476 PCR assays were performed on 134 transplan t recipients (102 kidney, 19 kidney/pancreas, 11 liver, 2 other) eithe r as protocol serial samples or as dictated by clinical events, All sa mples were concomitantly analyzed using standard virological assays fo r CMV including culture, shell vial, and serology, Patients with any C MV seropositive donor/recipient (D/R) combination received ganciclovir prophylaxis in conjunction with antilymphocyte induction for 14 days. No subsequent CMV prophylaxis was used. The positive predictive value was 55% in all seropositive donor/recipient combinations. The highest risk group (seronegative recipient of seropositive donor) showed the highest positive predictive value, whereas seropositive recipients of either seropositive or seronegative donors showed positive predictive values of 45% and 25%, respectively, Negative predictive value was 100 % for all groups, Early detection of CMV infection has important impli cations for patient management, including preemptive therapy, which ca n be guided by PCR, especially in high risk (D+/R-) patients.