AN HEURISTIC MODEL FOR SEA-LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE MELTING OF SMALL GLACIERS

Ice melt from glaciers and small ice caps (GSICs) is an important comp onent of past and future sea level rise. Projections made to date of f uture GSIC-derived sea level rise have used a simple model that has co nceptual weaknesses, calibrated using data that have since been revise d. Here we devise a more satisfactory model that accounts for regional variations in the altitudinal ranges of the world's glaciers, calibra te it using recent data, and consider the implications for future sea lever rise. Because of compensating factors, the new projections are s imilar to the earlier ones, but their methodological basis is far more sound. Wide uncertainties still remain.