THE ECONOMIC EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CRIME

Economic analysis of infectious diseases emphasizes the self-correctin g character of epidemics, as rising risk of infection causes potential victims to take self-protective measures. We apply the analysis to cr ime, showing how rational potential victims of crime will take increas ed self-protective measures in response to rising crime rates, causing those rates to moderate. Victim responses to crime can offset public expenditures on crime control, this implies that there may be a ''natu ral'' rate of crime that is difficult for the public sector to affect. We show that victim responses to crime can impart a cyclical pattern to crime rates and discuss the implications of our analysis for gun co ntrol and present empirical evidence concerning the responsiveness of self-protective measures to crime rates and the cyclical pattern of th ose rates.