FORECASTING OF EGG-PRODUCTION AND WHOLESALE EGG PRICE IN COIMBATORE DISTRICT OF TAMIL-NADU

The growth of poultry farming depends on feed and egg prices and hence proper planning needs to be made. ?he present paper confined itself t o the time-series analysis to forecast egg production and wholesale eg g price in Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu. Necessary data for egg p roduction and wholesale egg price from 1977-78 to 1988-89, and January 1959 to March 1990, respectively, were collected from primary sources . Of the various rime-series models, viz. simple extrapolation models (linear trend model; log-linear regression equation and autoregressive trend model); smoothing methods (single exponential smoothing with 0. 2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 as 'alpha' values and adaptive-response-rate singl e exponential smoothing); decomposition method (ratio-to-moving averag e decomposition method); and stochastic time-series models (autoregres sive integrated moving average) applied to egg production and monthly average wholesale egg price, ratio-to-moving average decomposition met hod was the appropriate method since it possessed minimum mean squared error. Also time-series models, viz linear trend model, single expone ntial smoothing with 'alpha' values as 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 and linea r moving average applied to monthly rearranged wholesale egg price rev ealed higher mean squared error as compared to original arrangement (e arlier to later months).