RELIABILITY OF COMPUTER-GENERATED PREDICTION TRACING

The reliability of a commercially available computer prediction progra m (Quick Ceph II) was evaluated using pretreatment and posttreatment c ephalograms of 30 patients who were treated during an active period of growth. The computer prediction was compared with the actual treatmen t result, and the growth forecast with the computer prog ram was compa red with the growth forecast using a manual method. Using paired stude nt's t-tests, predictions for 5 of the 10 variables measured were foun d to be statistically reliable. Comparing the relative accuracy of gro wth prediction in terms of absolute values, the computer came closer t o the actual result in four of the nine variables, while the manual me thod came closer in three variables. Predictions for the other two var iables were virtually the same using both methods. The manual method o f prediction was sufficient to give a reasonably good graphic represen tation of growth changes to create a VTO. However, the computer offers the added advantages of quicker access to information and somewhat gr eater accuracy in producing the tracing, as well as its use in patient education.