RELIABILITY OF SUPPLY TO CONSUMERS AS A FUNCTION OF THE INSTALLED GENERATION RESERVE MARGIN

The paper deals with the relation between a reliability criterion for long-range generation system planning and the actual power not supplie d to consumers in terms of unsupplied equivalent minutes. A high-relia bility criterion for long-range generation system planning is reflecte d in a relatively high installed generation reserve margin. As a conse quence, the reliability of supply to the consumers is expected to be h igh. A method to correlate the generation reserve margin with the reli ability of supply to consumers has been developed. The proposed method was tested using operation data from the Israel Electric Corporation for a period of eight years (1986-1993). The method could be used to p redict the reliability of supply to consumers in the future.