Rg. Niemi et al., STATE ECONOMIES AND STATE TAXES - DO VOTERS HOLD GOVERNORS ACCOUNTABLE, American journal of political science, 39(4), 1995, pp. 936-957
Theory: States have sufficient autonomy in the policies they adopt tha
t voters hold state officials partly responsible for the condition of
the state economy. As the best known state official, elected by a stat
ewide constituency, governors in particular are held accountable for t
he economic performance of their states. With respect to taxes, the cl
ear locus of responsibility in state actions and the high visibility o
f certain taxes suggest that governors will also be held responsible f
or increased rates. Hypotheses: The performance of the state economy,
tax increases, and voters' personal financial situations all influence
voting behavior in gubernatorial elections. Methods: Legit equations,
using 1986 ABC/Washington Post exit polls in 34 of 36 gubernatorial r
aces, combined with economic and tax data from the states. Results: A
poor state economy, increases in taxes, and lowered personal finances
all contribute to votes against incumbent governors and their parties.