PRECISION AND ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL ESTIMATION

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest he re that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimate s should consider the communicative interaction between the individual s who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for maki ng decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy-informativeness trade-off (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puz zling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calib ration of subjective confidence intervals. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & So ns, Ltd.