Sl. Sporer et al., CHOOSING, CONFIDENCE, AND ACCURACY - A METAANALYSIS OF THE CONFIDENCE-ACCURACY RELATION IN EYEWITNESS IDENTIFICATION STUDIES, Psychological bulletin, 118(3), 1995, pp. 315-327
There is widespread agreement among researchers that the correlation b
etween identification accuracy and confidence in identification judgme
nts is weak. For this reason, many experts caution against heavy relia
nce on confidence when evaluating identification accuracy. The authors
present a meta-analytic review of 30 studies using staged-event metho
ds that include target-present and target-absent lineups. Although the
overall confidence-accuracy correlation in these studies corresponds
to that reported in previous reviews, including choice as a moderator
variable leads to a somewhat different conclusion. For choosers (those
making positive identification), the confidence-accuracy correlation
was reliably and consistently higher than for nonchoosers. In addition
, the mean confidence level for correct choosers is higher than that f
or incorrect choosers in every study.