TRACKING OF BLOOD-PRESSURE OVER A 40-YEAR PERIOD IN THE UNIVERSITY-OF-MANITOBA FOLLOW-UP-STUDY, 1948-1988

High blood pressure is a well-recognized, modifiable, cardiovascular d isease risk factor, Tracking of blood pressure was examined in the Uni versity of Manitoba Follow-up Study, a cohort of 3,983 men followed ov er a 40-year period, between 1948 and 1988, Blood pressure measurement s recorded over time in these men, prior to the development of ischemi c heart disease, were used in this analysis. Two approaches to trackin g were used; correlation analysis and the quantification of the likeli hood for a man whose blood pressure was in either the top or bottom qu intile to remain in the extreme end of the distribution at later measu rement. For ages 25-75 years and for intervals between blood pressure measurement ranging from 5 to 35 years, significant evidence for track ing was found. The strongest evidence for tracking was in middle age, 45-55 years. Strength of tracking decreased with increasing time betwe en measurements. This analysis suggests that men at highest risk for h ypertension can be identified at a young age, Hence, strategies for pr evention of cardiovascular complications can be targeted in early adul thood.