PREDICTING SAFE RIDING BEHAVIOR AND ACCIDENTS - DEMOGRAPHY, BELIEFS, AND BEHAVIOR IN MOTORCYCLING SAFETY

A prospective national survey of British motorcyclists was designed, t o examine the relationships between beliefs about safe riding, behavio ur on the roads, and accidents and spills. At Time 1, 4100 riders were sent a postal questionnaire to tap their beliefs about safe riding an d their self-reported behaviour on the roads in the previous year. Hal f the sample received a questionnaire based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975) and half received a questionnaire ba sed on the Health Belief Model (Rosenstock, 1966; Janz and Pecker, 198 4). Twelve months later, at Time 2, respondents were asked to complete a second questionnaire, in which they reported their behaviour and ac cident history in the intervening period. The most important behaviour al predictor of spills and accidents was found to be a factor which me asured violations - breaking the law and rules about safe riding. Law and rule breaking was strongly predicted by demographic factors, parti cularly age, sex, and experience, and by beliefs. We conclude that bel iefs about safe riding do predict riding behaviour, which in turn pred icts accident involvement, and that beliefs are best seen as mediators between demographic inputs, such as age and experience, and behaviour al outcomes.