We have modeled the far-infrared water line emission expected from cir
cumstellar outflows from oxygen-rich late-type stars, as a function of
the mass-loss rate and the terminal outflow velocity. For each mass-l
oss rate and terminal outflow velocity considered, we computed self-co
nsistently the gas density, temperature, outflow velocity, and water a
bundance as a function of distance from the star. We then used an esca
pe probability method to solve for the equilibrium level populations o
f 80 rotational states of water and thereby obtained predictions for t
he luminosity of a large number of far-infrared rotational transitions
of water. In common with previous models, our model predicts that wat
er will be copiously produced in the warm circumstellar gas and that w
ater rotational emission will dominate the radiative cooling. However,
our use of a realistic radiative cooling function for water leads to
a lower gas temperature than that predicted in previous models. Our pr
edictions for the far-infrared water line luminosities are consequentl
y significantly smaller than those obtained in previous studies. Obser
vations to be carried out by the Infrared Space Observatory will provi
de a crucial test of the models presented here.