DO CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE RISK-FACTORS PREDICT ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

Background. The purpose of this study is to describe associations betw een a number of standard cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mor tality. Method. Mortality data were collected for a randomly selected cohort of 1029 New Zealand men aged 35-64 years, followed up over a 9- year period. A proportional hazards regression model was used to estim ate the relative risks (RR) for all-cause mortality associated with a number of cardiovascular risk factors. Results. In all, 96 deaths occu rred over the 9-year period, of which 50% were due to cardiovascular c auses. All-cause mortality was positively associated with cigarette sm oking (age-adjusted RR = 2.01, 95% CI : 1.15-3.53, current versus neve r), systolic blood pressure (age-adjusted RR = 2.18, 95% CI : 1.23-4.4 4, upper versus lower tertile), and body mass index (age-adjusted RR = 1.59, 95% CI : 0.94-2.66, upper versus lower tertile) and inversely a ssociated with high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (age-adjuste d RR = 0.45, 95% CI : 0.25-0.80, upper versus lower tertile). All-caus e mortality was only weakly associated with serum total cholesterol (a ge-adjusted RR = 1.19, 95% CI :0.70-1.99, upper versus lower tertile), and there was no evidence of a U-shaped relationship for this risk fa ctor, There was an inverse association between all-cause mortality and socioeconomic status (age-adjusted RR = 1.70, 95% CI : 1.03-2.80, low er versus upper). Light alcohol consumption was associated with reduce d all-cause mortality (age-adjusted RR = 0.63, 95% CI : 0.37-1.05, lig ht versus teetotal), but this benefit did not persist for alcohol cons umption above about three standard drinks per day. Conclusions. The fi ndings of this study indicate that the standard cardiovascular risk fa ctors are likely to have a beneficial impact on all-cause mortality as well as cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older men.