GOMPERTZIAN ANALYSIS OF AMYOTROPHIC-LATERAL-SCLEROSIS MORTALITY IN ITALY, 1957-1987 - APPLICATION TO BIRTH COHORTS

During the last 3 decades, the mortality rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) markedly increased in various countries, including Ita ly. This finding has been attributed to factors such as better case as certainment or changes in the demographic structure of the population, or to unknown environmental factors. The longitudinal Gompertzian ana lysis represents an alternative way to evaluate this phenomenon. Morta lity from ALS in Italy in the last three decades fits in well with the Gompertz model in both sexes, and also with specific mortality of dif ferent birth cohorts. The 'environmental' factor R(0) showed a decreas ing trend in the most recent birth cohorts. Therefore, according to th is model, the increase in ALS mortality during the last few decades ma y be due to the increased strength in competing for mortality of ALS c ompared to other diseases.