A SCENARIO-BASED FRAMEWORK FOR MULTICRITERIA DECISION-ANALYSIS IN WATER-RESOURCES PLANNING

This paper describes the evolution of a general group decision-making or negotiation support procedure for water resources planning at a str ategic level (such as regional development planning), based on princip les of multicriteria decision analysis. A number of difficulties have been encountered in applying many of the standard multiple-criteria de cision-making (MCDM) tools and techniques directly in this context. Th e paper introduces a broader framework in which these difficulties may be overcome, so that MCDM tools can be used effectively for evaluatin g strategic planning options. This framework is based on direct evalua tion of sequences of ''policy scenarios,'' which are neither a full se t of possible planning ''alternatives,'' nor fully specified down to t he finest level of detail. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it within the context of regional water resource planning in South Africa are discussed.