A METHOD OF ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION O F CONCURRENT CAUSE-SPECIFICDEATH RATES

All individuals during their lifetimes are exposed, to mortality from different causes, which are competing risks. Several statistical model s have attempted to deal with this problem, but most start with the ea sier hypothesis that the risks are independent of each other. Such an hypothesis is harder to satisfy in the case of chronic pathological pr ocesses, which are strongly correlated with predisposing factors. In s uch cases, it preferable to introduce individual factors into the anal ysis (e.g. bio-physiological characteristics or lifestyles). These fac tors can be used to predict overall mortality rates or those for some major causes of death. A logistic model was applied to individual data obtenaid from a long-term longitudinal study. A vector of probabiliti es (one for every possible cause) was estimated for each individual. V arious issues relating to competing mortality risks from different cau ses may be approched from a new angle.