Im. Lipkus et al., DO OPTIMISTS DISTORT THEIR PREDICTIONS FOR FUTURE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EVENTS, Personality and individual differences, 15(5), 1993, pp. 577-589
Trait optimism as measured by the Life Orientation Test was explored a
s a predictor of judgemental distortions for positive and negative eve
nts within varying time-frames. Subjects were asked to predict their a
bsolute or relative chances of experiencing positive and negative even
ts within 3 months, 3 months to 1 year, or 1-5 years. It was predicted
that optimists would report the likelihood of experiencing more posit
ive and less negative events relative to other people. While optimists
did expect to experience more positive and less negative events, they
did not give themselves more favorable predictions compared to other
individuals. Being an optimist influenced judgements made within varyi
ng time-frames, especially within 3 months and 3 months to 1 year, for
negative events only. Discussion highlights the need to differentiate
trait measures of optimism with judgemental biases that serve to cate
gorize individuals as optimists.