MULTICRITERIAL ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRY CONVERSION RATES USING INTEGRAL MODELS

The very first stages in the conversion of defense industries have rai sed numerous practical problems that require scientific analysis: choi ce of the conversion sphere and conversion priorities (production of c onsumer goods or production of capital goods for the consumer-goods in dustry, new science-based technologies, infrastructure development, et c.); forecasting the consequences of the economic conversion policy; r estructuring versus shutdown decisions and determination of conversion scales for industries and specific enterprises; specific product deci sions and choice of production technologies; determination of optimal restructuring schemes; determination of efficient rates of conversion, etc. Foreign experience with centralized and multilevel management of conversion processes suggests that it is inadvisable to attempt a rig id control of these processes from the top and that the preferred appr oach is to focus primarily on indirect economic controls (tax credits, loans, etc.). This conclusion does not detract from the importance of analyzing and modeling efficient (optimal) conversion strategies. Mat hematical modeling of the conversion of defense enterprises and indust ries is a complex scientific problem, and its analysis in our country is only beginning. The relevance and the multi-faceted nature of this problem admits various approaches to its solution: ranging from highly aggregated macro models that describe the basic strategies of the pro cess to detailed MIS models for on-line control of the restructuring t o new products. Because of the complexity of the problem, the only pra cticable approach to mathematical modeling for conversion control is t o structure the control problems, identify different aspects and facet s of control, and develop particular models for their description. The se models are then integrated into a single informationally interlinke d modeling complex. On the whole, the mathematical modeling of convers ion lags behind the economic analysis of conversion (see [1-41 and els ewhere), which is an obstacle to further development of decision suppo rt systems for conversion management. In this paper, we will only cons ider the issue of technical refitting rates of industrial systems unde rgoing conversion. We assume that some of the basic conversion problem s listed above have already been solved; in particular, we assume that the new product and the corresponding production capacities (equipmen t) have been chosen. Given these decisions, the main conversion proble m is the technological restructuring of the industrial systems. An exi sting industrial structure may change at some rate to a new structure, which consists of elements with known characteristics subject to the same resource constraints (on labor, assets, etc.). The efficiency cri terion for conversion in this setting is the ability to maintain const ant profitability under abrupt changes in consumer prices of the manuf actured goods. These considerations are the basis of the aggregated in tegral conversion model proposed in our paper.