PREDICTION OF DENTAL-CARIES IN PRESCHOOL-CHILDREN

Data obtained in a longitudinal study of caries incidence and caries-r elated factors were analysed with a view to producing a model for the prediction of caries. In direct correlations, caries incidence was sig nificantly associated with bacterial, dietary and salivary variables; but when the data were examined by stepwise regression the strongest v ariables were the baseline caries score and misuse of sugar. Counts of Streptococcus mutans entered into the analysis but only as a relative ly minor component. Similar significant relationships were seen with t he determination of odds ratios. A caries activity test was formulated combining the following caries-associated variables: high counts of S . mutans, or lactobacilli, or the misuse of sugar, or frequent consump tion of paediatric medicines. Regular use of fluoride tablets could co mpensate for paediatric medicine use or misuse of sugar. Such a caries activity test if it had been applied to the children at baseline woul d have had a positive predictive value of 0.76, a negative predictive value of 0.82, a sensitivity of 0.8 and a specificity of 0.78. Combini ng tests made the prediction of caries more accurate and in the popula tion for which it was intended gave a reliable means of detecting thos e children most in need of enhanced caries prevention.