THE PROCESS OF INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION - AN ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES

This article examines the relevance and importance of mediation in the management of international disputes. It utilises an original data se t on disputes and mediation events to analyse systematically the facto rs and conditions associated with successful mediation. Four clusters of factors, and their relative impact on mediation, are explored. Thes e are: (a) factors concerning the dispute itself, (b) factors concerni ng the parties in dispute, (c) factors pertaining to the mediator, and (d) factors pertaining to mediation behaviour. Multiple regression an alysis reveals that the level of hostility, as measured by fatalities, has the greatest (negative) impact on the chances of successful media tion. Other variables that significantly affect mediation success incl ude a history of friendly relations, socio-cultural similarity, neutra l grounds, and an active mediation strategy.