MITIGATING FACTORS - ASSESSING THE COSTS OF REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS

The debate over the costs of GHG emission reduction has become more co mplex recently as disagreements over the existence of economic and env ironmental double dividends have been added to discussions over the ex istence of a negative cost potential, We argue that basic assumptions about economic efficiency the (sub-)optimality of the baseline and the rate of technical change are more important than model structure, and we underline the importance of the timing of decisions for determinin g the costs, Moreover the use of a single baseline 'no policy' scenari o and several policy intervention scenarios may be fundamentally misle ading in the longer term simply because the very idea of a business as usual scenario is deeply problematic, Ultimately the debate turns on political judgments about the desirability of alternative development paths. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.