COASTAL GEOMORPHOLOGY THROUGH THE LOOKING-GLASS

Coastal Geomorphology will pin future prominence as environmentally so und coastal zone management strategies, requiring scientific informati on, begin to supplant engineered shoreline stabilization schemes for a melioration of coastal hazards. We anticipate substantial change and p rogress over the next two decades, but we do not predict revolutionary advances in theoretical understanding of coastal geomorphic systems. Paradigm shifts will not occur; knowledge will advance incrementally. We offer predictions for specific coastal systems delineated according to scale. For the surf zone, we predict advances in wave shoaling the ory, but not for wave breaking. We also predict greater understanding of turbulent processes, and substantive improvements in surf-zone circ ulation and radiation stress models. Very few of these improvements ar e expected to be incorporated in geomorphic models of coastal processe s. We do not envision improvements in the theory of sediment transport , although some new and exciting empirical observations are probable. At the beach and nearshore scale, we predict the development of theore tically-based, two- and three-dimensional morphodynamical models that account for non-linear, time-dependent feedback processes using empiri cally calibrated modules. Most of the geomorphic research effort, howe ver, will be concentrated at the scale of littoral cells. This scale i s appropriate for coastal zone management because processes at this sc ale are manageable using traditional geomorphic techniques. At the lar gest scale, little advance will occur in our understanding of how coas tlines evolve. Any empirical knowledge that is gained will accrue indi rectly. Finally, we contend that anthropogenic influences, directly an d indirectly, will be powerful forces in steering the future of Coasta l Geomorphology. ''If you should suddenly feel the need for a lesson i n humility, try forecasting the future...'' (Kleppner, 1991, p. 10).