AN INTERACTIVE FLOW MODEL FOR PROJECTING SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS

Successful planning in educational administration is highly dependent on accurate student numbers. An interactive enrolment projection model is described which begins with pre-school age children to project the expected number of first grade entrants. These cohorts are then progr essed through the school system. The model described can be implemente d on a microcomputer and uses an interactive technique which enables h uman intervention in order to take full account of local knowledge in predicting the numbers in each year group. Control is maintained by al lowing groups of schools to be amalgamated and then by applying to the se larger groups the same techniques used to obtain the initial indivi dual school enrolments. Adjustments to individual school enrolments ar e then possible following the reconciliation of larger group figures w ith known demographic statistics. This counteracts the effects of stud ent mobility across wider areas and overcomes many of the problems ass ociated with simple aggregation of individual school projections. The model provides a valuable planning tool when enrolment figures are nee ded for decision making.