A 2-TIERED APPROACH TO LONG-RANGE CLIMATE FORECASTING

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for pr edicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem wi th an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted firs t at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then u sed to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic e vents of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement wi th observations over many regions of the globe.