UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT ACCURACY AND RESOURCE-ALLOCATION OUTCOMES - ANEMPIRICAL-TEST OF A PRESUMED RELATION

I conducted a correlational study to test the hypothesis that resource allocation outcomes become more favorable as uncertainty assessment a ccuracy (i.e., resolution and calibration) increases. For each of 32 c ollege basketball games, participants predicted which team would win, estimated the subjective probability that their prediction was correct , and were given the opportunity to place a wager. The dependent varia ble was profit earned over the 32 bets. Proportion correct and mean ce rtainty were controlled in the analyses. Results indicated that indivi duals with higher resolution scores earned significantly more profit t han those with lower scores. Higher profits were also associated with better calibration.