MODELS FOR THE SIMULATION OF THE TRANSPORT AND FATE OF OIL-SPILLS IN THE ARABIAN GULF - CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS

A number of numerical models to predict the fate and transport of oil spills have been developed especially, or designed, for use in the Ara bian Gulf (January 1991). These models were used to predict the transp ort of a number of large spills in the Gulf with varying degrees of su ccess. In this paper eight of these models are examined. Capabilities and limitations of these models are highlighted. It is concluded that two-dimensional models, while useful for the prediction of potential i mpact areas and the deployment of clean-up resources in the most effic ient manner, are not sufficient for a realistic assessment of potentia l environmental and economic damage of oil spills. On the other hand, while three-dimensional models have the capability of predicting sub-s urface transport which is a critical requirement in the Arabian Gulf, they need extensive testing and calibration for proper parameterizatio n of the fluid internal friction stress. Critical oceanographic and we athering data needed to improve further the accuracy and reliability o f these models is identified.