PREDICTING GEOGRAPHICAL AND WITHIN-SEASON VARIATION IN MALE FLIGHTS OF 4 FRUIT PESTS

Significant spatial or temporal variability (or both) is shown in the physiological time (degree-days) needed for males of the tufted apple bud moth, Platynota idaeusalis (Walker), redbanded leafroller, Argyrot aenia velutinana (Walker), codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), and spo tted tentiform leafminer, Phyllonorycter blancardella (F.) to complete one generation. For the four insect species at all geographic locatio ns (North Carolina, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan), the de gree-day requirement for a generation is significantly smaller if the requirement is measured between the beginning of flight periods rather than between flight peaks. The degree-day requirement per seasonal ge neration significantly increases from spring to autumn for redbanded l eafroller and spotted tentiform leafminer. Latitudinal effects on gene ration time for the tufted apple bud moth and redbanded leafroller sho w that the insects develop significantly faster and exhibit more synch ronized flight periods with increasing latitude. Similar elevational e ffects are shown for tufted apple bud moth. Laboratory data do not giv e developmental parameter estimates that yield accurate phenology mode l predictions for three of the four species, and tufted apple bud moth developmental data from field cage rearings likewise give inaccurate parameter estimates for phenology model predictions. Model predictions of seasonal male flights are most accurate if model developmental par ameters are estimated from monitoring field populations and these para meters are specific both spatially and temporally.