DESCRIPTIVE AND PREDICTIVE-VALIDITY OF A HIGH-RISK ALCOHOLISM RELAPSEMODEL

A major problem with alcoholism treatment is the high rate of early re cidivism to drinking and re-admission for alcoholism treatment. The ob jective of this study was to retest a model to predict early (within 6 months) re-admission to alcoholism treatment using a second independe nt sample. Additionally, we compared a high-risk alcoholism relapse (H AR) model (defined by chronicity of heavy drinking, daily alcohol cons umption and previous treatment history) with three previously defined alcoholism typologies for descriptive and predictive validity. Male al coholics (N = 299) admitted for treatment at a Veterans Affairs inpati ent treatment program were interviewed and then followed for 6 months after discharge. The HAR model identified 107 (35.8%) alcoholics at hi gh-risk for relapse prior to discharge. Of the HAR group 61% were re-a dmitted within 6 months compared to 28% of the low-risk alcoholism rel apse (LAR) group (OR = 4.0, 95% CI = 2.4-6.8). The HAR group was older with a lower socioeconomic status, fewer legal problems, more physica l and mental health problems and decreased evidence of social support. The HAR model was more successful than were the typologies for predic ting early relapse. The HAR model demonstrates descriptive and predict ive validity and compares favorably to existing typology models.